How often do teams chase down runs off the last 30 balls?
The batting side needs 50 off the last 30 balls. Who's favourite? We looked at 1,042 IPL chases that were still alive at the start of the 16th over, from 2008 to 2026.
Success rate by runs needed
| Runs needed off 30 | Chases | Won | Tied | Lost | Chased |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 or fewer | 169 | 166 | 2 | 1 | 98% |
| 31–40 | 143 | 129 | 2 | 12 | 90% |
| 41–50 | 202 | 138 | 2 | 62 | 68% |
| 51–60 | 169 | 70 | 7 | 92 | 41% |
| 61–70 | 139 | 34 | 1 | 104 | 24% |
| 71 or more | 220 | 10 | 2 | 208 | 5% |
Around 10 an over is the tipping point. Needing 51 to 60, the batting side won 41% of the time. Under 40 it's close to a formality; beyond 70 it's a miracle.
The biggest chases from the last five overs
| Year | Chasing | Against | Needed | Wickets down | Finished on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Rajasthan Royals | Kings XI Punjab | 84 off 30 | 2 | 226/6 |
| 2024 | Rajasthan Royals | Kolkata Knight Riders | 79 off 30 | 6 | 224/8 |
| 2012 | Chennai Super Kings | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 75 off 30 | 3 | 208/5 |
| 2024 | Lucknow Super Giants | Chennai Super Kings | 74 off 30 | 3 | 213/4 |
| 2024 | Gujarat Titans | Rajasthan Royals | 73 off 30 | 4 | 199/7 |
| 2019 | Kolkata Knight Riders | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 72 off 30 | 3 | 206/5 |
The smallest totals defended
| Year | Defending | Against | Batting side needed | Wickets down | Finished on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Gujarat Titans | Lucknow Super Giants | 30 off 30 | 2 | 128/7 |
| 2021 | Mumbai Indians | Kolkata Knight Riders | 31 off 30 | 4 | 142/7 |
| 2013 | Sunrisers Hyderabad | Pune Warriors | 33 off 30 | 4 | 108/10 |
| 2008 | Royal Challengers Bangalore | Chennai Super Kings | 35 off 30 | 4 | 112/8 |
| 2014 | Kolkata Knight Riders | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 35 off 30 | 2 | 148/5 |
| 2008 | Kolkata Knight Riders | Delhi Daredevils | 37 off 30 | 6 | 110/10 |
Every one of these chases is in the 5overs puzzle pool or the Classics. Can you do better than the real captain?