Wickets in hand: how much do they matter at the death?
Commentators love to say "wickets in hand". The data backs them up. Here's how often the batting side won from the start of the 16th over, by how many wickets they'd already lost.
| Wickets lost after 15 overs | Chases | Won | Lost | Chased |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | 242 | 207 | 32 | 86% |
| 3 | 235 | 169 | 66 | 72% |
| 4 | 224 | 107 | 107 | 48% |
| 5 | 184 | 47 | 134 | 26% |
| 6 | 95 | 15 | 80 | 16% |
| 7 or more | 62 | 2 | 60 | 3% |
With two or fewer down, the batting side won 86% of these chases. With four down it was 48%, a coin flip. Each extra wicket matters because the batters still to come are weaker hitters, and a new batter needs time.
That's why, in 5overs, a wicket is worth more than a few runs saved, and why an attacking field can be right even when it leaks the odd boundary.
These figures mix every target together, so they overlap with the runs needed. Teams with plenty of wickets left often also need fewer runs.